Fun Facts • July 6, 2023

Who Would Have Guessed?

by Angie Hoskins

Pretend it is 2013. The real estate market is clearly recovering from the Great Recession. The Broncos are having a great year and will eventually make it to the Super Bowl.

Now, imagine someone makes a prediction that 10 years in the future mortgage interest rates would double over the course of 12 months.

If you were to guess what sort of impact on house prices that would cause, what would you say?

It would be reasonable to guess that prices would decline if mortgage rates doubled.

Here’s what really happened. Prices kept going up.

Some thought prices would crash. Many thought prices would go down.

They keep going up. Not as fast as they were, but they are still up.

Compared to one year ago, prices are up the following amounts:

Larimer County = 2.6%

Weld County = 2.2%

Metro Denver = 1.1%

Why? Supply and demand.

Supply is low and there is still demand in the market.

Fun Facts • July 6, 2023

The Listing Solstice

by Angie Hoskins

Last Wednesday marked the first official day of summer and the longest day of the year.

Coincidentally, the research shows us that listings are taking far longer to sell than one year ago.

Specifically, days on market has increased by the following amounts in our market versus exactly one year ago:

Larimer County: 210%

Weld County: 100%

Metro Denver: 122%

Even though days on market is up significantly over one year ago, properties are selling faster on average than what is considered ‘normal.’

Over the last 10 years, average days on market has been between 70 and 50 days. So, while properties are taking longer to sell versus the market of one year ago, they are still selling much faster than normal.

Fun Facts • July 6, 2023

High Active

by Angie Hoskins

The average price of all active listings is likely much higher than you think.

For example, the average listing price of the nearly 5000 properties for sale in Metro Denver is nearly $1,000,000.

Here is the average price of all active listings along the Front Range:

Larimer County: $886,000

Weld County: $736,000

Metro Denver: $939,000

Fun Facts • June 12, 2023

A New Change

by Angie Hoskins

There is a new type of change to be prepared for.

One interesting way to track the market is to measure the year-over-year difference in inventory.

Quite simply, this looks at how many homes are available today versus the same time one year ago.

For the past several months in a row, the difference as measured by percentage change, has been significant.

That is because inventory levels between May of 2020 and May of 2022 were rock-bottom low.

For example, inventory in March of this year was up over 120% compared to March 2022.

When measured against historical numbers, inventory in the first half of this year is incredibly low. But, when measured against the first half of 2022, inventory is significantly higher.

Well, that is about to change because inventory increased in June and July of 2022.

So, now when we look at inventory levels versus a year ago, the percentage change will be more modest.

For example, Northern Colorado inventory today is up only 8% compared to one year ago.

Fun Facts • June 6, 2023

Not What Many Thought

by Angie Hoskins

Despite higher interest rates, prices did not decrease like many people thought. They certainly have not crashed like many thought.

Average prices along the Front Range have seen only a slight decrease versus last year.

The average price in May this year has decreased versus May of last year by:

2.5% in Larimer County

3.2% in Weld County

2.8% in Metro Denver

When we take a closer look, what is apparent is that average prices have decreased based on the type of properties that are selling versus last year.

Specifically, there were more $1,000,000 – plus homes selling a year ago versus today. Those higher-end transactions in 2022 increased the average price.

In May of 2023, $1,000,000- plus transactions decreased versus May of 2022 by:

33% in Larimer County

29% in Weld County

35% in Metro Denver

So, we don’t see that prices have gone down. We see that average price has slightly decreased because they aren’t as many luxury sales pulling up the average.

Fun Facts • June 6, 2023

2.5 Per Household

by Angie Hoskins

On average, up and down the Front Range, there are 2.5 people living in each household.

This is an important number to know as you read the stories about census data and population growth.

Obviously, as population grows, housing needs also grow.

For every 100 people added to the population, there needs to be 40 more housing units to accommodate those people.

Those housing units come in all shapes and sizes of course. Some are for sale and some are for rent.

The projection is that by 2040, Northern Colorado (Larimer and Weld Counties) will have 1,000,000 people which is 300,000 more than today.

So, Northern Colorado needs a total of 120,000 more housing units or 7,000 per year.

Metro Denver will grow by 500,000 people in that same time frame and will need 200,000 more housing units or 12,000 per year.

Big population growth means big growth for housing.

Fun Facts • May 22, 2023

Months of Supply

by Angie Hoskins

As measured by months of supply, we have a strong Seller’s market in Northern Colorado.

Both Larimer County and Weld County measure at 1.6 months of supply.

That means, at the current pace of sales, it would take only about 6 weeks to sell all of the existing homes for sale.

The measurement becomes even more interesting when we look at specific price ranges.

Under $500,000 is 1.0 months in Larimer and 0.9 in Weld.

$500,000 to $700,000 is 1.6 months in Larimer and 2.0 in Weld.

$700,000 to $1,000,000 is 2.0 months in Larimer and 3.0 in Weld.

And, over $1,000,000 is 3.6 months in Larimer and 5.3 in Weld.

We are not surprised to see higher months of inventory in higher price ranges.

It is interesting that even $1,000,000 properties have less than 6 months.

Fun Facts • May 12, 2023

More New

by Angie Hoskins

Nationally, new home inventory as a percentage of the total inventory just hit a record high. 26% of all properties currently available for sale are brand new homes.

To put this in perspective, in 2018 it was 14%. From 2000 to 2008 it bounced between 10% and 15%

Locally, we notice even higher numbers.

In Larimer County, 29% of all inventory is brand new. In Weld County, it is a whopping 35%.

The reason why the percentage is high is not so much because of a surge in new construction, but because the amount of re-sale properties listed for sale is so low.

The Front Range has an under-supplied market, especially when it comes to re-sale properties.

Fun Facts • May 10, 2023

TAX ASSESSMENT TIME

by Angie Hoskins

This week’s fun fact is that you just received your new valuation from your County Assessor and you have until June 8th to protest the value.

By statute, properties in Colorado are re-assessed every two years and owners are given their new Assessed Valuation in early May.

This year, many Colorado property owners are surprised by the amount their property’s value went up in just two years.

An important reason why many increases are substantial is based on the timing of comparable sales.

By statue, each County will only consider comparable sales used for the valuation between 7/1/2020 and 6/30/22.

This particular 24-month period happens to be one of the most active and robust real estate markets in history.

It can also be confusing that a new valuation received in May 2023 is based on comparable sales from way back in 2020, 2021 and the first half of 2022.

If you do plan to protest, comparable sales during that same 24-month period are the only ones which can be considered.

You may have questions about your new valuation and you may want to protest.

In any case, I am happy to help you.

Simply reach out to me!

Fun Facts • May 3, 2023

In Demand

by Angie Hoskins

For evidence that the Front Range is a desirable place to live and own real estate, look no further than the average price of our real estate.

According to the National Association of Realtors, the average price of a home in the United States is $486,000.

Compare that to the average price in our major markets:

Larimer County = $662,000
Weld County = $535,000
Metro Denver = $670,000

This means prices along the Front Range are 10% to 38% higher than the National Average.

While interesting, this is not surprising given our employment growth, economic health, and quality of life in our markets versus the Nation as a whole.